Chinese stocks’ rally is expected to slow by the end of 2025 as valuations rise and optimism for AI-driven gains is tempered, according to a Bloomberg survey of 16 analysts and fund managers.

The CSI 300 Index is projected to end the year at 4,675 points, a 1.2% rise from September 29, close, after a 17% rise year-to-date.

The Hang Seng Index is also expected to see only a 2% rise for the rest of the year.

Survey respondents said momentum will likely continue to slow in 2026, with a 5.5% gain forecast by next June.

Concerns cited include persistent geopolitical risks, unpredictable policy shifts, and a sluggish economy.

AI and technology stocks have led the gains, but 12 respondents warned the sector is now crowded.

About half of the respondents expect the PBOC to roll out stimulus by year-end, though one participant expects only modest targeted steps rather than a broad package.

🔗 Source: Bloomberg