China could see 300,000 driverless taxis operating in its four top-tier cities by 2030, according to a UBS forecast.

UBS analysts said advances in AI and the strong local EV industry are supporting the rise of robotaxis.

The number of robotaxis in China may reach 4 million by the late 2030s, UBS estimated.

Paul Gong, head of China automotive research at UBS, said autonomous vehicles may boost productivity as technology develops and labor costs rise.

He projected that if all taxis and cars on ride-hailing platforms are replaced by driverless cabs, the market could be worth up to US$183 billion annually, though no timeline was given for full commercial rollout.

HSBC also estimated that robotaxis could make up 6% of China’s taxi market, with an initial market size exceeding US$40 billion a year.

HSBC said autonomous taxis could generate an additional US$30 billion yearly from logistics and delivery services.

UBS expects the production cost for a self-driving taxi in China to fall below 300,000 yuan (US$41,900).

🔗 Source: South China Morning Post

🧠 Food for thought

1️⃣ China’s cost advantage creates pathway for massive robotaxi scale

The economics driving UBS’s ambitious 300,000 robotaxi forecast become clearer when examining current pricing structures in the market.

Robotaxi rides in China currently cost about 35 cents per mile compared to $2 per mile in the United States, representing an 83% cost advantage that makes services accessible to a much broader consumer base1.

This pricing differential stems from China’s competitive automotive supply chain and government subsidies, creating conditions where robotaxi services can achieve mass adoption more rapidly than in other markets.

The cost structure also enables faster fleet expansion, as Chinese companies can deploy vehicles more economically while maintaining sustainable unit economics at scale.

2️⃣ Seven years of systematic government coordination laid foundation for rapid expansion