BYD, Geely seen to lead automaker global top 10 by 2030: McKinsey

Up to five Chinese carmakers could enter the world’s top 10 automotive manufacturers by 2030, according to McKinsey.

The consultancy said technology and scale are likely to shift the industry landscape over the next five years.

BYD and Geely were already among the top 10 by sales in 2024, with BYD delivering 4.3 million vehicles and Geely selling 3.3 million units.

China now accounts for over 30% of global car production, and more than 60% of EVs sold worldwide go to Chinese buyers.

Chinese companies produce over 70% of the world’s EV batteries, led by CATL and BYD.

Data came from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers.

🧠 Food for thought

Implications, context, and why it matters.

Exports hit 5.6 million in the first 10 months of 2025, up 16%, while factories run at under half of 55.5 million capacity, which pushes expansion overseas 1.
Europe is the main target with 5.1% share in H1 2025, up 91%, and the EU added countervailing tariffs (anti-subsidy duties) of 17% to 35.3% on Chinese Electric Vehicles (EVs) in October 2024 on top of the 10% import duty 2 3.
The United States is shut with a 100% tariff on Chinese EVs since May 2024, so makers pivot to Europe, where the United Kingdom took 30% of Western Europe sales of Chinese cars 4 1.
Workarounds include Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs) that avoid Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) anti-subsidy duties, plus local production like BYD’s Hungary plant opening in 2026 and Chery building at the former Nissan Barcelona site 5 1.

Sales reached 347,100 units in Europe in H1 2025, yet brands lack charging ecosystems abroad, while buyers expect a smooth experience 2.
BYD grew to 100 UK dealerships in 2025 and plans a Europe-wide rollout, XPeng targets 20 UK dealers, while NIO enters mid-2026 with battery swap technology 6 7.
SaaS vendors can supply white-label software with Open Charge Point Interface (OCPI) roaming and ISO 15118 Plug&Charge authentication. Add local rails like Single Euro Payments Area plus instant payments, so brands can launch fast without owning infrastructure.
The window is short as many rely on dealer networks like Inchcape (a multinational auto distributor), which creates an opening to bundle charging software with vehicle sales 5.