BYD cuts 2025 delivery forecast after profit drop, price war

BYD has cut its 2025 vehicle delivery forecast to 4.6 million, down from an earlier target of 5.5 million, after a US$45 billion drop in its market value.

Its Hong Kong-listed shares have fallen over 30% from their peak four months ago, outpacing declines among peers.

Analyst sell ratings for BYD have reached their highest level since 2022, according to Bloomberg data.

The company reported a 30% drop in profit for Q2, its first decline in more than three years, as a price war intensified competition in China’s EV market.

Rivals such as Geely and Leapmotor have gained ground, while China’s government has criticized aggressive discounting.

BYD plans to launch new models in Q1 2026 after delaying some releases.

Analysts say the company needs to deliver 1.7 million vehicles in the final four months of 2025 to meet its revised target.

🔗 Source: Bloomberg

🧠 Food for thought

Implications, context, and why it matters.

Aggressive pricing strategies can backfire in competitive markets

BYD’s strategy of leading price cuts in China’s EV market has resulted in significant financial consequences, with the company reporting a 30% decline in profits for the June quarter. This marked its first profit drop in over three years2.
The pricing pressure strategy contributed to BYD having to slash its 2025 vehicle delivery target from 5.5 million to 4.6 million units, demonstrating how aggressive discounting can hurt both profitability and operational targets.
The Chinese government has become increasingly concerned about this “involution” in the EV sector, actively trying to curb excessive competition and price-cutting to prevent deflationary pressure2.
Despite being the market leader, BYD’s approach has enabled competitors to gain ground. While BYD’s sales fell 20.7% in August 2025, rival Geely’s sales surged 83.6% to nearly 173,000 units3.

Market leadership can erode quickly in rapidly evolving industries

While BYD maintains its position as China’s top EV seller with 373,626 vehicles sold in August, its growth is stagnating compared to competitors who are experiencing explosive growth4.
Geely Auto demonstrated remarkable momentum with 93,362 BEVs sold in August—a 98% year-over-year increase—while Leapmotor broke sales records with 57,066 NEVs, reflecting 88% growth4.
BYD’s plug-in hybrid sales actually declined 22.7% year-over-year in August, showing weakness in a key segment while competitors like Geely saw significant growth in PHEVs4.
The shift reflects how product cycles matter even for dominant players. Analysts note that BYD’s offerings have become “stale” since its 2018-2024 dominance period, with buyers turning to “new faces” in the market1.