BYD bets on overseas markets for 2026 sales growth

BYD expects overseas sales to rise sharply in 2026 as the Chinese EV maker pushes global expansion despite softer demand in the broader electric vehicle market.

The company said it aims to sell 3.5 million to 4 million vehicles in China and another 1.5 million overseas, implying global deliveries as of many as 5.5 million unit next year.

JPMorgan said management cited orders for new fast-charging models, while plug-in hybrids made up more than half of BYD’s overseas sales in the first four months, and Europe-only models are being planned.

🔗 Source: Bloomberg

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The forecast also rests on a richer vehicle lineup

BYD’s outlook rests on a move toward pricier vehicles with better margins, a change JPMorgan thinks many investors still undervalue 1.
JPMorgan expects that by the fourth quarter of 2026, more than 30% of BYD’s China sales will come from new models priced mostly above 200,000 yuan (US$29,000). In 2025, about 70% of sales sat below 150,000 yuan (US$22,000) 1.
JPMorgan estimates this mix could lift profit per vehicle by more than 5,000 yuan (US$740) which would help absorb higher costs and price pressure 1.
The export drive also comes as China’s new energy vehicle (NEV) market slows. Growth fell from 97% in 2022 to 38% in 2023, while auto profit margins dropped from 8.7% in 2015 to 4.3% in 2023, according to Rhodium Group, a policy research firm, citing data from the China Passenger Car Association 2.

BYD’s European plan aims to get around trade barriers

Its overseas ambitions run into new European Union (EU) tariffs on battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) made in China. ING calculates that the total rate can reach 45.3% once the EU’s standard 10% car tariff is included 3.
The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a Washington-based policy research group, says one possible response is to push plug-in hybrids in the EU because these tariffs apply to battery-electric vehicles 4.
Rhodium Group estimates BYD makes about 13,000 euros (US$15,000) more on each Seal U sold in the EU than on one sold in China. Even with a 30% duty, the EU would still offer a profit premium, which keeps exports appealing 2.
ING says the tariffs may hasten local manufacturing in Europe, where BYD is already setting up in Hungary and Turkey 3.