Bitcoin and Ether traded higher following a tentative ceasefire in the Iran-Israel conflict.

Market attention is now shifting to key economic data and remarks from central banks this week.

As of June 30, 2025, Bitcoin rose 1% over the past 24 hours to US$108,423. Ether gained 2.8%, reaching US$2,499.

This rebound follows recent losses that saw Bitcoin dip below US$100,000 amid heightened geopolitical tensions.

Traders are monitoring upcoming macroeconomic releases, including May job openings, June nonfarm payrolls, and the US unemployment rate.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak on July 1, 2025, at the European Central Bank forum, alongside central bank leaders from the UK, South Korea, and Japan.

He recently indicated that the Fed is not rushing to lower interest rates.

🔗 Source: The Block

🧠 Food for thought

1️⃣ Labor market data: the crypto market’s overlooked barometer

Bitcoin’s recent movements above $108,000 demonstrate how crucial employment data has become for cryptocurrency prices in the current economic environment.

Historical patterns reveal that weak labor data often precedes Bitcoin rallies, with analysis showing a typical 105-day lag between declining job openings and significant price increases 1.

The upcoming JOLTS report and nonfarm payrolls data this week could significantly impact Bitcoin’s trajectory, with weaker numbers potentially supporting a rally toward $115,000 by July as predicted by Bitfinex analysts 2.

The sensitivity to employment figures highlights how Bitcoin has evolved beyond its early narrative as a hedge against traditional financial systems to become increasingly integrated with macroeconomic cycles.

2️⃣ Bitcoin’s inelastic supply amplifies price volatility during market shifts

Bitcoin’s fixed maximum supply of 21 million coins creates fundamentally different market dynamics compared to traditional assets with elastic supply, explaining its dramatic price swings.