Bitcoin slips under $77,000 on rate concerns

Bitcoin fell below US$77,000 in Asia on May 18 as rising oil prices and US Treasury yields hit risk assets and traders saw little chance of near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts.

The 30-year Treasury yield closed at 5.13%, its highest since 2007, while Polymarket traders put the odds of no Fed move at 98% for June and 94% for July.

Binance Research said nearly 60% of bitcoin supply has not moved in more than a year.

Exchange balances are at a six-year low, showing limited selling from long-term holders.

But its short-term holder MVRV stayed below 1, which means recent buyers are sitting on losses and could make bitcoin more sensitive to another macro-driven selloff.

🔗 Source: CoinDesk

🧠 Food for thought

Implications, context, and why it matters.

Bitcoin’s price is increasingly tied to traditional market behavior

Bitcoin now moves closer to traditional finance in ways that can be measured.
The 30-day correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500, a widely followed US stock market index, recently reached 0.55, which means both have been moving more closely together 1.
Before 2020, that relationship often sat near zero 2.
Some analysts now view Bitcoin as a high-beta tech proxy, an asset that usually swings harder than tech stocks, rather than digital gold 1.
Recent market shocks made that link easy to spot, with Bitcoin’s price moves tracking S&P 500 futures, contracts tied to the index’s expected future value, almost in real time 1.

Vulnerable short-term holders create a fragile floor for Bitcoin’s price

Short-term holders, or STHs, own coins moved within the last 155 days and many are sitting on losses 3.
That group often faces more pressure during selloffs, which can raise the odds of panic selling 3.
Risk builds faster in derivatives, where speculators use high leverage, or borrowed money to place larger bets 3.
A macro-driven drop can force liquidations, automatic position closures, and set off a wave of selling that deepens the decline 3.
That dynamic helps explain why Bitcoin can react sharply to macro news, since stress on newer investors leaves price support looking thin 3.