ASML’s 2026 growth outlook depends on Q2 bookings

ASML, the largest supplier of chip-making equipment, will announce its second-quarter earnings on July 16, 2025, amid concerns about its growth prospects.

The Dutch company has experienced a 30% decline in market value since its peak last year.

Analysts are monitoring the company’s net system bookings, an important performance metric expected to reach 4.44 billion euros (US$4.84 billion) for the quarter.

This is up from 3.94 billion euros (US$4.29 billion) in the previous quarter, according to Visible Alpha.

For 2025, net bookings must show significant growth to meet ASML’s earlier projections.

ASML’s second-quarter performance is expected to provide further insight into its growth outlook for 2026, which is a key focus for investors.

🔗 Source: Reuters

🧠 Food for thought

1️⃣ ASML’s EUV monopoly creates resilience despite short-term market concerns

ASML’s 30% market value decline since its peak a year ago hides a fundamental strength: its complete monopoly on EUV (Extreme Ultraviolet) lithography machines, which are essential for manufacturing advanced AI chips.

Each EUV machine sells for approximately $200 million, generating substantial profits for ASML with virtually no direct competition in this critical segment 1.

This monopoly position explains why ASML confidently projects annual sales between €44 billion and €60 billion by 2030, with gross margins between 56% and 60%, despite current market skepticism 2.

The company’s Q1 2025 performance demonstrates this underlying strength, with 46% revenue growth and a 93% increase in earnings per share, outperforming many semiconductor peers 3.

ASML’s current P/E ratio of 33.9 reflects continued investor expectations for long-term growth, despite short-term booking concerns 4.

2️⃣ Geopolitical tensions create diverging growth patterns in ASML’s market segments

ASML’s China sales have remained steady at 27% of system sales in Q1, contradicting the company’s own projection that Chinese sales would fall to 20% by 2025 due to export restrictions 5.