🧠 Food for thought

Implications, context, and why it matters.

ASML’s backlog helps explain the softer forecast

• ASML’s weaker second-quarter forecast comes down to timing, not demand. A large share of its backlog is set for delivery later in 2026 and into 2027, in line with when customers’ factories will be ready 1.
• AI demand remains strong. South Korean memory chipmaker SK hynix placed an 11.9 trillion won (US$7.9 billion) order for extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography equipment, with deliveries running through the end of 2027 to support mass production of next-generation products amid AI-driven memory demand 2.
• China’s share of ASML’s net system sales fell as U.S. and Dutch export controls tightened 3. Proposed U.S. legislation such as the MATCH Act would further limit the sale or servicing of immersion deep ultraviolet (DUV) lithography tools to Chinese chip companies including SMIC, Huawei, Hua Hong, CXMT, and YMTC 4.

AI growth still runs into limits on EUV tool supply

• ASML is the only company that makes EUV lithography systems, which chipmakers need to produce the most advanced chips 3.
• That leaves EUV supply as a cap on how quickly leading-edge chip output can grow. More spending alone cannot remove that bottleneck 5.
• Large cloud companies can secure huge amounts of power for data centers, including Meta’s 7 gigawatt deal. Still, that capacity cannot be fully used without more leading-edge chips, which depend in part on new EUV tool deliveries and installation 5.
• Policies that limit ASML’s ability to sell or service advanced lithography tools can spread through the chip supply chain and slow AI infrastructure buildouts 5.