ASML raises sales outlook as AI drives chip tool demand

ASML raised its full-year net sales forecast to 36 billion euros (US$42.3 billion) to 40 billion euros (US$47 billion) from 34 billion euros (US$40 billion) to 39 billion euros (US$45.8 billion) after demand for chipmaking tools rose with AI data center spending.

The Dutch company makes lithography machines used to produce advanced semiconductors and reported Q1 net sales of 8.8 billion euros (US$10.3 billion), in line with analyst estimates.

ASML said chipmakers are expanding capacity plans, while China remains a risk as US lawmakers propose further curbs on some machine sales and servicing, and Dutch export controls limit some sales.

The company has said China should contribute about 20% of revenue, down from 36% of net system sales in Q4, and it no longer reports quarterly order bookings.

🔗 Source: Bloomberg

🧠 Food for thought

Implications, context, and why it matters.

China risk centers on keeping ASML machines running

The proposed MATCH Act would restrict sales and support for certain advanced chipmaking tools to China, including ASML’s deep ultraviolet (DUV) lithography machines, which use shorter-wavelength light to print chip circuits 1.
The same proposal would also bar servicing and maintenance, which could weaken output at China’s existing chip factories over time 2.
This matters for ASML because China is expected to contribute about 20% of company revenue this year.
ASML’s outlook leans on a 38.8 billion euros (US$45.6 billion) order backlog plus a share buyback program of up to 12 billion euros (US$14.1 billion) announced in January 2026 3, 4.

US tech policy leans on the global chip supply chain

The draft US law gives allies like the Netherlands 150 days to align export rules or face unilateral US action 2.
The approach seeks control over chokepoints in the semiconductor supply chain, where ASML holds a near-monopoly on extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography systems used to make the most advanced chips 5.
The pressure may speed China’s push for domestic alternatives, while ASML still faces rising geopolitical constraints 1.
That shift could prompt non-Chinese chipmakers like Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC), the world’s largest contract chipmaker, plus Samsung to lean further on ASML’s EUV tools for AI-related capacity expansions 5.