ASML Q4 orders jump to $15b on AI chip demand

ASML reported fourth-quarter orders of €13.2 billion (US$15.8 billion), significantly above analyst expectations of €6.3 billion (US$7.55 billion), driven by ongoing demand for AI-related chip manufacturing tools.

ASML forecast current-quarter sales of €8.2–€8.9 billion (US$9.83 – US$10.67 billion) and raised its 2026 outlook above analyst expectations

In the fourth quarter, the company posted net sales of €9.7 billion (US$11.63 billion) and a net profit of €2.8 billion (US$3.35 billion), slightly below estimates.

ASML’s sales are supported by increased chip demand from AI infrastructure and memory chip shortages, with some industry forecasts indicating capacity expansion from memory makers like Samsung and SK Hynix.

The company expects China’s revenue to decline to 20% of total sales in 2026, down from 33% last year, due to export restrictions.

🔗 Source: CNBC

🧠 Food for thought

Implications, context, and why it matters.

ASML’s record bookings warrant scrutiny for signs of sustainable demand

The record €13.2 billion in new orders should be unpacked to gauge what it can mean for future profitability.
Clarity should be added on the share of higher-margin extreme ultraviolet lithography (EUV) systems versus lower-margin deep ultraviolet (DUV) equipment.
The balance of purchases from logic chipmakers and memory producers should be checked, since each market moves through its own cycle.
With China revenue expected to reach 20% of total sales in 2026, the regional source of the bookings should be confirmed to judge demand and possible exposure to export restrictions.

Memory’s AI-linked investment cycle signals opportunity for suppliers

Memory capacity additions can open more revenue for firms across the semiconductor supply chain.
Micron lifted its 2026 capital expenditure plan to $20 billion 1, while Samsung and SK Hynix are also raising output to serve AI demand 2.
Spending reaches beyond ASML lithography tools, which can lift demand for fab construction, factory support systems such as power and cooling, specialty materials, and manufacturing automation software.
Public schedules like SK Hynix’s M15X facility (a new semiconductor fabrication plant) targeted for utilization by mid-2027 2 can guide capacity planning and sales efforts tied to the High Bandwidth Memory (HBM)-driven investment cycle 3.