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Asian tech stocks seen outperforming as AI demand holds

Asian tech stocks may keep outperforming consumer shares as investors weigh the Iran war’s potential to lift inflation more than it disrupts AI supply chains.

A regional tech gauge is up over 19% year-to-date versus a 7% drop in consumer discretionary, and both are down more than 9% since the conflict began.

Analysts said foreign flows are concentrating on AI-linked sectors, while higher fuel costs could curb household spending. Chipmakers may face selloffs but less demand erosion than consumer firms.

Asia’s tech benchmark trades at about 12 times forward earnings versus 15 times for consumer discretionary, and consumer sentiment may stay weak until there is more clarity on the war’s outlook.

🔗 Source: Bloomberg

🧠 Food for thought

Implications, context, and why it matters.

The AI boom’s supply-chain vulnerabilities amid the Iran war

  • Money keeps flowing into AI, yet parts of its supply chain could get hit by conflict-related disruptions.
  • Taiwan, where TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., the world’s largest contract chipmaker) operates, imports about 97% of its energy, and 37% of the fuel used for its electric grid comes from the Middle East as liquefied natural gas (LNG) 1.
  • If deliveries stop, Taiwan holds only 11 days of LNG reserves 1.
  • Chip production also relies on helium, which handles heat during semiconductor manufacturing and currently has no workable substitute 2.
  • Qatar, Iran’s maritime neighbor, supplies about one-third (about 38%) of global helium, and QatarEnergy (the state-owned energy company) declared force majeure (a legal declaration that allows a company to suspend deliveries due to extraordinary events) after attacks halted gas production and downstream operations 3.

Energy disruptions and rationing in Asia

  • Fighting has tightened energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, and in 2024 Asia received 84% of the oil and 83% of the LNG that moved through the strait 4.
  • Some governments are cutting consumption, with the Philippines moving to a four-day workweek to reduce government energy use and Nepal rationing cooking gas 5.
  • Those constraints add pressure on semiconductor makers already dealing with limited supply amid AI-driven demand 2.
  • If components run short, manufacturers may favor higher-margin AI chips over lower-profit parts 1.

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