Apple's revenue expected to rise 4.2% to $89.3b in Q3 2025

Apple is set to release its quarterly earnings on July 31, 2025, with analysts expecting a 4.2% increase in revenue to US$89.34 billion for the April-June period.

The company faces ongoing challenges from US tariffs, competition in China, and a delayed entry into the AI sector.

Apple has shifted some iPhone production to India to reduce the impact of potential US tariffs on foreign-made devices.

Analysts estimate the financial hit from tariffs could be less than US$900 million, below earlier projections.

iPhone sales are expected to have increased by 2.2% in the fiscal third quarter, partly due to higher demand in China, where quarterly sales rose 8%, fueled in part by the recent 618 shopping festival, according to Counterpoint Research.

Sales of other Apple devices are projected to slow, while services revenue is expected to rise to 10.7% of total revenue, according to LSEG.

Apple’s slow rollout of new AI features has led to concerns about its competitiveness in the fast-growing AI market.

🔗 Source: Reuters

🧠 Food for thought

1️⃣ Major supply chain shifts require years of strategic planning, not reactive moves

Apple’s production pivot demonstrates how supply chain diversification is a long-term strategic initiative rather than a quick tariff response.

The company expects that by June 2025, most U.S.-bound iPhones will originate from India, with over 50% of American iPhone sales coming from Indian manufacturing facilities1 2.

This shift has already driven a 240% increase in Indian-made smartphones in the second quarter, largely attributed to Apple’s supply chain transition3.

The timeline reveals that meaningful supply chain diversification takes years to execute effectively, requiring companies to begin strategic shifts well before external pressures become critical.

Apple’s approach of maintaining China as a manufacturing hub for non-U.S. markets while developing alternative locations shows how global companies can hedge geopolitical risks without abandoning established production capabilities1.