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Japan’s Kioxia forecast signals slower AI-driven NAND growth

Japanese memory chipmaker Kioxia, which makes NAND flash memory and solid-state drives (SSDs), forecast fiscal first-half operating income of 3.2 trillion yen (US$19.4 billion).

That implies about 1.9 trillion yen (US$11.6 billion) for the current quarter after June-quarter operating income of 1.3 trillion yen (US$7.8 billion) missed analyst estimates.

The company also announced a 3-for-1 stock split and a buyback of up to 800 billion yen (US$4.91 billion).

The softer outlook suggests the AI-driven flash memory upcycle may be moderating.

TrendForce said NAND contract prices are projected to rise 10%-15% quarter on quarter in the third quarter, but more slowly than in earlier quarters as buyer resistance grows.

Kioxia said revenue is mainly driven by flash memory and SSDs sold for smartphones, personal computers, enterprise servers, and data centers, showing AI demand matters, but is not its only end market.

Competition may also increase. Samsung is targeting mass production of its V10 NAND in the second half of 2026, while SK hynix targets mass production of 375-layer NAND by year-end.

TrendForce said long-term agreements provide a foundation for the server NAND contract market.

It added that stronger ties with large US cloud and data center operators could become increasingly important for suppliers such as Kioxia.

🔗 Source: Bloomberg

Recent Kioxia developments

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