Are Chinese gamers losing interest in the free-to-play model?

Over the past couple of weeks, we’ve seen some interesting developments when it comes to the monetization of highly-anticipated games in China.

First, we learned that Final Fantasy XIV will be charging a subscription fee rather than going free-to-play when it hits China next month. Then NCSoft and Kongzhong announced that the China version of Guild Wars 2 also wouldn’t be free-to-play, and will instead cost an up-front fee like it does in other territories.

These two games are among 2014’s most anticipated MMORPG releases in China, and gamers are definitely excited about them. Moreover, at least among hardcore gamers, there seems to be an increasing willingness to play paid games if it means avoiding the pay-to-win imbalances that often arise when games are free-to-play.

That doesn’t mean they want to pay a lot, of course—a 17173 poll found most Chinese gamers are hoping Guild Wars 2 will cost less than $30—but attitudes are definitely shifting. The most upvoted comment on that 17173 article says that Chinese gamers will accept high up-front prices for games if they’re fairly balanced and free of ads and cross-promotions. And a poll on Netease games has seen 75% of respondents so far answer that the monetization schemes for FFXIV and Guild Wars 2 are good.

Granted, these are both foreign-developed games, and neither of them has been released in China yet, so these monetization schemes could be an utter failure. And the comments and polls on gaming websites likely reflect the opinions of only the most dedicated of China’s gaming masses. But if Guild Wars 2 and Final Fantasy 14 do sell well, that could signify a push back toward paid and subscription monetization schemes in China’s gaming scene, or at least in the more hardcore PC MMORPG market.

More casual markets, especially mobile and browser games, are unlikely to abandon the free-to-play model anytime soon. But China’s hardcore gamers seem to be getting frustrated with poorly-balanced pay-to-win free-to-play games. And with two hotly anticipated MMORPGs coming this spring bucking the free-to-play trend, this could well be the moment where the market starts to shift back in the direction of paid- and subscription-based games.

Here’s hoping!

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