India to Overtake China in Race to a Billion Mobile Subscribers [Report]

Sharma: India to pass China in mobile subscribers in Q2 2012

Analyst Chetan Sharma has released his State of the Global Mobile Industry report, with a number of key insights regarding growth in India and China.

While China does have the biggest number of mobile subscribers, the US is still superior in revenue. In terms of ARPU (average revenue per user) Japan tops all nations, according to the report, driven by NTT Docomo, KDDI, and Softbank Japan, the top three global operators in mobile data ARPU.

We reported a few days ago about India’s growing mobile subscriber base, and how despite it’s recent momentum it still trails behind China. Sharma actually projects that India will pass China before Q2 2012 (see chart above), saying that the nation is adding mobile subscriptions at a faster rate as they both approach the one billion mark. But for India this does not necessarily mean that revenues will skyrocket as well, says Sharma:

While India has the highest subscriber growth rate in the world right now, the revenue generating opportunity remains down right anemic compared to other major markets with average dropping down to $3.50 in overall ARPU. Even with a significant subscriber base, there is going to be a general lack of opportunity in the market for the next couple of years relative to other markets.

Do check out the full report, as it’s jam-packed with a ton of information — not just on India and China, but on the mobile world as a whole. It’s available below via slideshare (best viewed in full-screen view using the button in the lower right), or you can visit Sharma’s blog and get it in pdf format.

State of the Global Mobile Industry