Musk: AI, robotics may make work optional in 20 years

Elon Musk said at the US-Saudi Investment Forum in Washington, D.C., this week that he expects work to become optional in 10 to 20 years due to advances in AI and robotics.

Musk, who leads Tesla, suggested that in this future, people would work by choice, comparing it to gardening for enjoyment rather than necessity.

He also said money could become irrelevant over time if AI and robotics continue to improve, referencing the post-scarcity world in Iain M. Banks’ Culture novels.

Musk did not provide details on how such a society would operate but mentioned the concept of “universal high income” at a previous event.

Economists remain skeptical about the timeline, citing high costs and slow adoption of robotics, as well as the challenge of ensuring political support for widespread income distribution.

🔗 Source: Fortune

🧠 Food for thought

Implications, context, and why it matters.

Musk’s 10–20 year timeline clashes with today’s robot adoption math

IFR tracked robot density doubling in seven years 1. In 2023 the United States reached 295 per 10,000 employees; Korea hit 1,012; EU 219; North America 197; Asia 182. China joined the top ten in 2019 and doubled within four years 1.
Annual installations are on track for about 575,000 units in 2025, then above 700,000 by 2028 2. Operational stock reached about 4.66 million in 2024, so robots remain far from worker counts 2.
Payback still strains small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) 3. Hardware prices fell while Chinese collaborative robot (cobot) makers grew domestic share from 35% to 73% from 2017 to 2024, yet cash limits and skill gaps slow rollouts as labor shortages push uptake in advanced economies 3.

Near-term opportunity to package automation financing with 2025 tax incentives

2025 U.S. law gives 100% bonus depreciation for robotics placed in service after January 19, 2025; some advanced manufacturing can claim an investment tax credit up to 25% 4 5. Domestic Research and Experimentation (R&E) expensing returned for full year-one deductions 4.
Robot-as-a-Service (RaaS) providers and system integrators (firms that design and implement automation systems) can pair these breaks with financing to improve first-year math for SMEs 3. The federal research and development (R&D) credit can cover payroll and supplies on custom automation work 6.
Lenders plus automation consultancies that bundle credit help with secure deployment and integration support can win recurring revenue 3. Logistics and warehousing hold about 39.6% share, with automotive near 29.2% 3. Healthcare is climbing.