Chinese EV makers to claim 33% of global market by 2030: UBS

Chinese EV makers are expected to capture about one-third of the global auto market by 2030, according to UBS.

UBS said Chinese firms will likely generate most of their profits from overseas markets as domestic competition rises and trade barriers increase in the West.

The bank’s forecast remains unchanged despite slower EV adoption in Europe and tariffs on Chinese vehicles.

UBS estimates that international sales now make up around 20% of Chinese automakers’ industry sales, and up to half of earnings for some companies.

Chinese EV manufacturers are expanding production abroad, with firms like BYD, SAIC, and Great Wall Motor building plants in Thailand; BYD and Great Wall Motor are also adding facilities in Brazil and Hungary.

Industry experts noted that global EV competition is consolidating around a few major platforms, although companies from India and other markets are also growing.

🔗 Source: South China Morning Post

🧠 Food for thought

Implications, context, and why it matters.

UBS’s 2030 forecast builds on recent market share momentum

Chinese brands already account for 5.1% of new-vehicle registrations in the EU and UK in the first half of 2025, nearly double from a year earlier despite tariffs 1. UBS’s one-third global market share call for 2030 extends that trend.
In China itself, domestic brands now sell nearly two-thirds of passenger vehicles as foreign brands have lost 29% share since 2020 2. That home strength gives scale and confidence for expansion abroad.
Exports confirm factory capacity. Automakers shipped 5.86 million vehicles in 2024, with 19% of cars built in China now going abroad 2. As localized European production (building cars in Europe) begins in Hungary, local plants will support market entry 3.

Procurement opportunities emerge as Chinese automakers localize European production

BYD plans to start output at its Hungary facility before the end of 2025, after hosting a Turin supplier forum with 380 Italian parts firms and holding more than 170 one-on-one meetings 3. European tech or industrial vendors can engage through BYD’s supplier outreach, with partnership efforts flagged at the forum 3.
For mapping, plus infotainment (in-car entertainment and information) providers, BYD’s focus on in-house battery cells with semiconductors leaves fewer slots in those systems 3. Third-party software for navigation, connectivity, or user experience may still be in play.
Charging infrastructure partnerships offer another route. As BYD builds its dealer network across Europe 4, operators of charging stations or energy management platforms can seek installation deals at new showrooms or service centers before rivals secure exclusivity.