Apple set to overtake Samsung in global smartphone market

Apple is set to overtake Samsung as the world’s top smartphone maker in 2025, according to Counterpoint.

The launch of the iPhone 17 series has driven strong sales in the US and China, with iPhone shipments estimated to rise 10% next year versus Samsung’s 4.6%.

This would mark the first time since 2011 that Apple holds the top position, with a projected 19.4% global market share.

Analysts cite a wave of consumer upgrades, especially from those who bought phones during the Covid-19 pandemic.

Counterpoint also notes that 358 million secondhand iPhones were sold from 2023 to Q2 2025, and these users may upgrade soon.

The firm expects Apple to keep its lead through 2029.

🔗 Source: Bloomberg

🧠 Food for thought

Implications, context, and why it matters.

Apple’s lead and a narrowing gap in rich markets

The market research firm International Data Corporation (IDC) pegs the Q3 2025 gap at 2.8 million units, with Samsung at 61.4 million (19.0%) and Apple at 58.6 million (18.2%) 1.
Recent gains come mainly from the US 2, where iOS holds 58.03% share 3, plus China promotions that briefly put Apple first despite a 1% drop 4.
From 2023 to Q2 2025, Counterpoint tallied 358 million used iPhones, creating an upgrade pool. Globally Android leads with 72.46% mobile OS share and over 3 billion active devices versus 1 billion iPhones 3.
Counterpoint sees Apple keeping a vendor lead through 2029 based on brand-level shipment share, a different metric from installed base. The technology market research firm TechInsights expects Huawei’s HarmonyOS (Huawei’s own smartphone operating system) to overtake iOS by installed base (active devices in use) from 2026, driven by rapid growth in mainland China 5.

Mobile payment providers should prioritize iOS in the US and growth markets

Apple’s global installed base sits at 17% while Android holds 81% 6. iOS users drive 68.6% of app spending, with $142 billion forecast in 2025 versus $65 billion on Google Play (Android’s primary app store outside China) 3.
Financial technology (fintech) firms plus mobile commerce platforms should watch shipment trends as iPhone volumes rose 18% in India with 9% growth in Indonesia, signaling rising iOS use 2.
Digital wallet providers can rival revenue from larger Android bases by capturing a small slice of iOS transactions in emerging markets.