Analysts bullish on ‘clear leader’ Grab amid regulatory headwinds

Photo credit: The Business Times

Analysts remain broadly optimistic about Grab following its first-quarter results.

The company reported a 466.7% jump in earnings to US$136 million in Q1 2026 from US$24 million in Q1 2025.

Brokerage firms presented a mixed outlook on target prices, citing a combination of strong operational execution and emerging regulatory headwinds in Indonesia.

Record growth in on-demand segments

Jefferies analyst Thomas Chong reiterated a “buy” rating on Grab, maintaining a target price of US$5.80. He highlighted the group’s “solid execution across segments” on Tuesday, noting that its revenue was 4% ahead of consensus estimates.

Gross merchandise value (GMV) grew 24% year on year to US$6.1 billion, encouraging Jefferies with its resilience.

Photo credit: Grab

Chong said mobility EBITDA margins reached 8.9%, slightly ahead of his estimates. Meanwhile, revenue from deliveries outpaced consensus by rising 23% year on year to US$510 million.

The brokerage also noted that financial services are on track to achieve segment-adjusted EBITDA breakeven by the second half of 2026.

Attractive share price

Morningstar equity analyst Kai Wang maintained a fair value estimate of US$5.60 for Grab, deeming the current share price attractive in a Tuesday report. Revenue for the quarter was 3% above the investment research firm’s estimates at US$955 million.

Wang noted that while the mobility business has reaccelerated, Morningstar expects GMV growth in the “low teens” for the remainder of 2026. The delivery segment is projected to grow by 20% this year, buoyed by the expansion of non-food delivery.

See also: Grab’s financial health in 8 charts

“Given Grab’s clear leadership in Southeast Asia, we believe it will have long-term pricing power for its services because there is a lack of substitutes in the region,” Wang explained.

Indonesia regulatory headwinds